Συγκλονιστική ανακάλυψη> Το Ρεύμα του Κόλπου αποδυναμώνεται και παγώνει την Ευρώπη

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Κάτι που έχει να συμβεί για περισσότερα από 1.000 χρόνια

Μία πολύ ανησυχητική ανανάλυψη έκανε το Ινστιτούτο ερευνών του Potsdam για τις επιπτώσεις της κλιματικής αλλαγής. Σύμφωνα με τα στοιχεία, η κλιματική αλλαγή έχει αποδυναμώσει το ρεύμα του ωκεανού που οδηγεί το Ρεύμα του Κόλπου, το γνωστό Gulf Stream, στη χαμηλότερη άκρη του, κάτι που έχει να συμβεί για περισσότερα από 1.000 χρόνια.

Γνωστό επισήμως ως Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), είναι η κινητήρια δύναμη που φέρνει ζεστό νερό από τον Κόλπο του Μεξικού στο Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο και γενικότερα στην Ευρώπη.

Πρόκειται για ένα πολύπλοκο σύστημα που είναι υπεύθυνο για τους ήπιους χειμώνες στη Δυτική Ευρώπη και επηρεάζει επίσης το επίπεδο των βροχοπτώσεων.

Η ανάλυση της ισχύος του με την πάροδο του χρόνου αποκάλυψε μια άνευ προηγουμένου επιβράδυνση τον τελευταίο αιώνα, που πιθανώς συνδέεται με την αύξηση των εκπομπών αερίων του θερμοκηπίου.

Οι ειδικοί προειδοποιούν ότι μέχρι το τέλος του αιώνα θα μπορούσε να είναι τόσο αδύναμο να φτάσει σε ένα σημείο ανατροπής που θα είχε ως αποτέλεσμα καταστροφικές καιρικές συνθήκες σε ολόκληρο τον κόσμο.

«Το Gulf Stream System λειτουργεί σαν ένας γιγαντιαίος ιμάντας μεταφοράς, που μεταφέρει ζεστά επιφανειακά νερά από τον ισημερινό προς τα βόρεια και στέλνει κρύο προς τα νότια», λέει ο συγγραφέας μελέτης Stefan Rahmstorf. «Μετακινεί σχεδόν 20 εκατομμύρια κυβικά μέτρα νερού ανά δευτερόλεπτο, σχεδόν εκατό φορές τη ροή του Αμαζονίου».

Είναι δύσκολο να ληφθούν άμεσα δεδομένα από την AMOC, οπότε οι ερευνητές συνέλεξαν πληροφορίες από διάφορες πηγές που χρονολογούνται περίπου πριν από 1.600 χρόνια.

Υποστηρίζει προηγούμενα ευρήματα από την ίδια ομάδα που διαπίστωσε το 2018 ότι το ρεύμα των ωκεανών έχει επιβραδυνθεί κατά 15% από τα μέσα του 20ού αιώνα.

Μέχρι το 1800, ήταν σχετικά σταθερό, αλλά το ρεύμα μειώθηκε μετά το λεγόμενο «Little Ice Age», τη «μικρή εποχή παγετώνων» που έληξε το 1850.

Αυτό πιθανότατα δεν οφείλεται στον ανθρώπινο αντίκτυπο, καθώς η Βιομηχανική Επανάσταση δεν είχε ακόμη φτάσει σε πλήρη ανάπτυξη.

Όμως, μέχρι τη δεκαετία του 1950, το AMOC είχε επιβραδυνθεί σοβαρά καθώς τεράστιες ποσότητες ρύπανσης διέκοψαν το σχηματισμό της.

Η αυξημένη βροχόπτωση και η τήξη του φύλλου πάγου της Γροιλανδίας που προκαλείται από την υπερθέρμανση του πλανήτη προσθέτουν γλυκό νερό στον ωκεανό που μειώνει την αλατότητα και την πυκνότητα του νερού.

Αυτό στη συνέχεια αποτρέπει τη βύθιση του ζεστού νερού που έχει ταξιδέψει βόρεια καθώς κρυώνει και αυτό διακόπτει τον κύκλο μεταφοράς, αποδυναμώντας τελικά τη ροή του AMOC.

Οι ειδικοί προειδοποιούν ότι έως το 2100 το Gulf Stream System μπορεί να εξασθενήσει έως και 45%, φέρνοντας την ανθρωπότητα επικίνδυνα κοντά σε ένα «σημείο ανατροπής» όπου το τεράστιο ωκεάνιο ρεύμα καθίσταται ασταθές.

Εάν συμβεί αυτό, οι ανατολικές ακτές των ΗΠΑ θα αντιμετωπίσουν την άνοδο της στάθμης της θάλασσας και η δυτική Ευρώπη θα αντιμετωπίσει πιο ακραίες καιρικές συνθήκες.

Για παράδειγμα, οι χειμώνες θα είναι πολύ πιο κρύοι και είναι πιθανό τα κύματα θερμότητας να γίνουν πιο συνηθισμένα και κατά τη διάρκεια του καλοκαιριού οι βροχοπτώσεις να είναι όλο και λιγότερες.

«Η μελέτη αποκαλύπτει ότι πριν από την εποχή της κλιματικής αλλαγής που προκαλείται από τον άνθρωπο, η ανατροπή του Ατλαντικού ήταν σχετικά σταθερή και ισχυρότερη από ό,τι είναι τώρα», λέει ο Δρ. Andrew Meijers, διακεκτριμένους επιστήμονας σε θέματα ωκεανών, ο οποίος δεν συμμετείχε στη μελέτη.

Αυτό δείχνει ότι η επιβράδυνση πιθανότατα δεν είναι μια φυσική αλλαγή, αλλά το αποτέλεσμα της ανθρώπινης επιρροής.

«Το AMOC έχει μια βαθιά επιρροή στο παγκόσμιο κλίμα, και ιδιαίτερα στη Βόρεια Αμερική και την Ευρώπη, οπότε αυτή η απόδειξη της συνεχιζόμενης εξασθένισης της κυκλοφορίας είναι κρίσιμα νέα στοιχεία για την ερμηνεία των μελλοντικών προβλέψεων του περιφερειακού και του παγκόσμιου κλίματος.

Η συνεχιζόμενη αποδυνάμωση της ανατροπής σημαίνει ότι διακινδυνεύουμε να βρούμε αυτό το σημείο, το οποίο θα είχε βαθιές και πιθανώς μη αναστρέψιμες επιπτώσεις στο κλίμα».

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