Κ. Φίλης στο iefimerida: Γιατί φτάσαμε στην AUKUS -Ο ανταγωνισμός ΗΠΑ-Κίνας, τι θα κάνει η Ρωσία -Την ΕΕ δεν την υπολογίζει κανείς
Η συμφωνία AUKUS, που ανακοίνωσαν οι ηγέτες των ΗΠΑ, της Βρετανίας και της Αυστραλίας, έχει προκαλέσει παγκόσμιο αντίκτυπο, την αντίδραση της Κίνας, αλλά και της Γαλλίας.
Οι Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, η Βρετανία και η Αυστραλία ανακοίνωσαν την εγκαθίδρυση μιας νέας εταιρικής σχέσης ασφάλειας στην περιοχή του Ινδικού-Ειρηνικού Ωκεανού, που θα περιλαμβάνει βοήθεια προς την Αυστραλία ώστε να αποκτήσει πυρηνοκίνητα υποβρύχια, καθώς η κινεζική επιρροή στην περιοχή αυξάνεται.
Η Κίνα αντέδρασε με οργή, κάνοντας λόγο για «ψυχρό πόλεμο», ενώ η Γαλλία, που βλέπει να ακυρώνεται η συμφωνία με την Αυστραλία για πυρηνικά υποβρύχια, μιλά για «πισώπλατη μαχαιριά».
Τελικά, τι σημαίνει αυτή η συμφωνία που έκανε άνω-κάτω τον πλανήτη; Πάμε σε μια νέα εποχή Ψυχρού Πολέμου; Ερχεται κούρσα εξοπλισμών μεταξύ ΗΠΑ-Κίνας; Πώς συνδέεται η αποχώρηση των Αμερικανών από το Αφγανιστάν με τη μετατόπιση του ενδιαφέροντός τους σε Ειρηνικό και Ινδικό Ωκεανό; Αυτονομείται ο αγγλοσαξονικός άξονας από την Ευρώπη; Γιατί πέταξε έξω τη Γαλλία; Η ΕΕ είναι ο μεγάλος ηττημένος; Πώς θα αντιδράσει η Κίνα; Τι θα κάνει η Ρωσία; Τι θα σημάνει η αλλαγή του γεωστρατηγικού χάρτη για την Ελλάδα;
Το iefimerida.gr, επιχειρώντας να απαντήσει στα ερωτήματα που τίθενται, απευθύνθηκε στον Κωνσταντίνο Φίλη, αναπληρωτή καθηγητή Διεθνών Σχέσεων στο Αμερικανικό Κολλέγιο Ελλάδας και συγγραφέα του βιβλίου «Διεκδικητικός πατριωτισμός. Ανατομία μιας συζήτησης που δεν έγινε ποτέ».
Μέσα από τις απαντήσεις του ανιχνεύονται οι προθέσεις Ουάσιγκτον, Λονδίνου και Πεκίνου, οι επόμενες κινήσεις της Μόσχας και η ανακατάταξη στο παγκόσμιο σκηνικό.
Ακολουθεί η συνέντευξη με τον Κωνσταντίνο Φίλη:
Πώς αξιολογείτε τη συμφωνία ΗΠΑ-Βρετανίας-Αυστραλίας με το αρκτικόλεξο AUKUS; Τι σημαίνει γεωστρατηγικά και πολιτικά για τον παγκόσμιο χάρτη;
Βλέπω πέντε επίπεδα ανάλυσης και αξιολόγησης αυτής της συμφωνίας.
Το πρώτο έχει να κάνει με τις ΗΠΑ. Οι ΗΠΑ είδαν το γόητρό τους να πλήττεται σοβαρά με την αποχώρηση από το Αφγανιστάν και με τον τρόπο που αυτή έγινε, δημιουργώντας μια ανησυχία στους περιφερειακούς τους συμμάχους ότι βρίσκονται σε φάση αποδρομής και ενδιαφέρονται πλέον να παρεμβαίνουν επιλεκτικά. Αυτό δημιούργησε ανησυχία σε πολλούς από τους εταίρους των ΗΠΑ στην ευρύτερη περιοχή της Ασίας και όχι μόνο.
Με αυτή την κίνηση λοιπόν, οι Αμερικανοί προσπαθούν να δείξουν ότι επανακάμπτουν εμφατικά σε μια περιοχή που χαρακτηρίζεται ως μεγάλης στρατηγικής σημασίας ζώνη, αυτή του Ινδικού-Ειρηνικού Ωκεανού, και δίνουν το «παρών» για να προασπίσουν τα δικά τους συμφέροντα καθώς και των συμμάχων τους, και, βέβαια, να ανασχέσουν την Κίνα.
Η δεύτερη διάσταση αφορά στη Βρετανία, η οποία μετά το Brexit, κ. Μόσχοβα, βρίσκεται σε αναζήτηση παγκόσμιου ρόλου. Έχει επιχειρήσει με κάποιες κινήσεις να κάνει εμπορικές και αμυντικές συμφωνίες, αλλά οπωσδήποτε αυτή η συμφωνία δίνει μεγάλη ώθηση και στον Μπόρις Τζόνσον προσωπικά, αλλά και στη Βρετανία και στον ρόλο που θέλει να επιτελέσει. Δεδομένου ότι καμία άλλη ευρωπαϊκή χώρα δεν συμπεριλαμβάνεται σε αυτή τη συμφωνία, είναι και μια απάντηση των Βρετανών, κατά κάποιον τρόπο, ότι μετά το Brexit μπορούν να ζήσουν και μόνοι τους. Άλλωστε, αυτή ήταν πάντα η αίσθηση της ιδιαιτερότητας που είχαν οι Βρετανοί, ακόμη και όταν ήταν μέλος της ευρωπαϊκής οικογένειας.
Η τρίτη διάσταση αφορά στη Γαλλία, η οποία μένει κυριολεκτικά στα κρύα του λουτρού. Διότι, πέραν του γεγονότος ότι έχει η ίδια παρουσία στην περιοχή, είχε και μία συμφωνία από το 2016 ύψους 31 δισ. ευρώ για την παροχή πυρηνοκίνητων υποβρυχίων στην Αυστραλία. Αυτή η συμφωνία, για την οποία μάλιστα είχε μιλήσει ο Μακρόν τον περασμένο μόλις Ιούλιο, κάνοντας λόγο για τη δέσμευση της Γαλλίας να τηρήσει τα συμφωνηθέντα, δεν βρίσκεται στον αέρα, πρόκειται να ακυρωθεί. Διότι η Αυστραλία, σε συνεργασία με τους Αμερικανούς, θα αναπτύξει τα δικά της πυρηνικά υποβρύχια. Προφανώς, αυτή η απογοήτευση, όπως εκφράστηκε ήδη από τους Γάλλους, δείχνει και μία τάση: Ότι το δυτικό μέτωπο, το οποίο θα ανέμενε κανείς ότι μετά την εκλογή Μπάιντεν θα ήταν και πάλι αρραγές, δεν είναι. Και ότι ο αγγλοσαξονικός άξονας ΗΠΑ-Βρετανίας φαίνεται να έχει βρει μια δική του περπατησιά και να κινείται ανεξάρτητα και αυτόνομα από τις ευρωπαϊκές δυνάμεις και την Ευρωπαϊκή Ενωση.
Το τέταρτο έχει να κάνει προφανώς με την Κίνα. Ο στόχος αυτής της συμφωνίας, ακόμη και αν δεν το είπαν ανοικτά, είναι φανερά η ανάσχεση της Κίνας στην περιοχή. Και μάλιστα θα το συνέδεα με το γεγονός ότι την ερχόμενη εβδομάδα, στις 24 Σεπτεμβρίου, ο Τζο Μπάιντεν ανακοίνωσε ότι θα δεχθεί στην Ουάσιγκτον τους πρωθυπουργούς Ινδίας, Αυστραλίας και Ιαπωνίας. Αυτή ήταν μια περιφερειακή σύμπραξη, με τα αρχικά QUAΤ, που αφορούσε σε μια τετραμερή συμμαχία ΗΠΑ, Αυστραλίας, Ινδίας και Ιαπωνίας. Εφόσον και αυτή αναβιώσει -γιατί επί Τραμπ είχε αφεθεί-, θα στείλει οπωσδήποτε ένα μήνυμα σε σχέση με την απόπειρα να μην επιτραπεί στην Κίνα να αναπτύξει τα ερείσματά της σε μια περιοχή που είναι η άμεση γειτονιά της.
Το πέμπτο έχει να κάνει με τον ρόλο της Αυστραλίας, η οποία μέχρι τώρα προφανώς και ήταν προσδεδεμένη στο άρμα των Αμερικανών, αλλά ήταν πιο διακριτικός ο ρόλος της. Αυτή τη στιγμή μοιάζει σαν να βγαίνει από το καβούκι της. Υπάρχει και μια επιπρόσθετη διάσταση εδώ: Η Αυστραλία σε λίγα χρόνια από σήμερα θα είναι πρώτη δύναμη παγκοσμίως σε παραγωγή υγροποιημένου φυσικού αερίου (LNG). Κι αυτό είναι κάτι που προσμετράται, γιατί η Κίνα θα ήθελε πολύ να είχε πρόσβαση και στα ενεργειακά αποθέματα της Αυστραλίας, και τώρα τα πράγματα δυσκολεύουν.
Και όλο αυτό γίνεται, πρέπει να σας πω, σχεδόν έναν χρόνο μετά από μια συμφωνία εμπορικού χαρακτήρα που είχε συναφθεί μεταξύ όλων των κρατών της περιοχής -με εξαίρεση την Ινδία-, συμπεριλαμβανομένης της Ιαπωνίας, της Νότιας Κορέας και της Αυστραλίας, με την Κίνα, η οποία τότε είχε θεωρηθεί ως μεγάλη νίκη του Πεκίνου, εφόσον είχε καταφέρει να συμπεριλάβει χώρες-συμμάχους των ΗΠΑ σε αυτή την εμπορικού και οικονομικού χαρακτήρα σύμπραξη.
Τελικά, η Κίνα είναι πραγματική απειλή για το δυτικό μπλοκ;
Η Κίνα, κ. Μόσχοβα, ήταν η υπ’ αριθμόν ένα απειλή ασφάλειας και για τα συμφέροντά τους, ήδη από την εποχή Ομπάμα. Μάλιστα, αν δεν είχε προηγηθεί η 11η Σεπτεμβρίου 2001, στο στρατηγικό δόγμα των Αμερικανών, ήδη από τότε, η Κίνα θεωρούνταν ο μεγάλος ανταγωνιστής και αντίπαλος των ΗΠΑ. Σας θυμίζω ότι όταν ο Ομπάμα ουσιαστικά αποστασιοποιήθηκε από περιοχές της Μέσης Ανατολής -και αυτό το έκανε, βέβαια, επειδή είχαν μειωμένο ενεργειακό ενδιαφέρον οι ΗΠΑ, εξαιτίας του ότι είχαν καταστεί αυτάρκεις λόγω της επανάστασης του σχιστολιθικού πετρελαίου, και αερίου-, τότε μίλησαν οι Αμερικανοί για το περίφημο Asia Pivot, που ήταν ουσιαστικά η πρόθεσή τους να στρέψουν το ενδιαφέρον τους στην Ασία και να αφήσουν σε δεύτερη μοίρα άλλες περιοχές, στις οποίες είχαν πολύ πιο έντονη παρουσία.
Αρα, αυτή η απόσυρση των ΗΠΑ από το Αφγανιστάν, πέραν των λόγων που αναλύθηκαν, έχει να κάνει και με αυτόν τον στρατηγικό σχεδιασμό;
Οπωσδήποτε. Το είχαμε πει πολλοί, εξαρχής, αυτό. Εγινε με πολύ λάθος τρόπο, ατσούμπαλο, αδόκιμο, με πολύ κυνισμό στον λόγο του Αμερικανού προέδρου. Περισσότερο θα περίμενε κανείς από τον Τραμπ μια τέτοια κίνηση και όχι από τον Μπάιντεν. Οι Αμερικανοί ουσιαστικά παραδέχθηκαν ότι απέτυχαν, 20 χρόνια μετά, έχοντας επενδύσει περισσότερα από 2 τρισ. δολάρια, έχοντας χάσει πάνω από 2.500 στρατιώτες, έχοντας αφήσει στα χέρια των Ταλιμπάν αμυντικό εξοπλισμό ύψους 83 δισ. δολαρίων… Ολο αυτό συνιστούσε μια αποτυχία.
Εξαρχής ήταν σαφές ότι οι Αμερικανοί αποφάσισαν να αποδεχθούν ότι το κύρος τους θα τρωθεί λόγω της αποχώρησης από το Αφγανιστάν, αλλά αυτό θα τους έδινε χώρο, χρόνο και χρήμα για να στραφούν προς περιοχές που είναι μεγαλύτερου ενδιαφέροντος γι’ αυτούς, όπως είναι η περιοχή του Ινδικού και Ειρηνικού Ωκεανού.
Σε αυτή την πολυπαραγοντική εξίσωση δεν έχουμε βάλει μια σημαντική παράμετρο, τη Ρωσία.
Σωστά. Η Κίνα εκτιμώ ότι θα στραφεί περισσότερο προς τη Ρωσία. Εχουν ήδη συμπήξει ένα μέτωπο -δεν είναι απολύτως αρραγές, αλλά οπωσδήποτε είναι πολύ ισχυρό. Η Ρωσία δεν έχει την οικονομική ευχέρεια να κινηθεί από μόνη της.
Κατά την Κίνα, τη Ρωσία και άλλες δυνάμεις, όπως είναι η Τουρκία, το διεθνές σύστημα σήμερα λειτουργεί κατά τρόπο που εξυπηρετεί τα συμφέροντα των δυτικών και δη των Αμερικανών. Αλλωστε, οι διεθνείς θεσμοί που δημιουργήθηκαν μετά τον Β’ Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο και παραμένουν ακόμη σε λειτουργία είναι ακριβώς αποτέλεσμα αυτού.
Αρα, η Κίνα θα θελήσει να στραφεί περισσότερο προς τη Ρωσία και νομίζω ότι η Μόσχα θα αξιοποιήσει αυτή την πρόθεσή της να αναζητήσει συμμάχους ή εδραίωση συμμαχιών, για να μπορέσει να αντιμετωπίσει αυτή την κίνηση των Αμερικανών. Δεν αρκεί στην Κίνα αυτό, σε Ινδικό-Ειρηνικό η Ρωσία δεν έχει κάποια σοβαρή παρουσία. Αλλά, βέβαια, η αμυντική συνεργασία μπορεί να ενισχυθεί. Η ρωσική αμυντική βιομηχανία είναι σημαντική για τους Κινέζους, παρότι έχουν και αυτοί τη δική τους.
Νομίζω ότι το επόμενο χρονικό διάστημα θα δούμε ένταση ανταγωνισμού μεταξύ ΗΠΑ-Κίνας στον τομέα της τεχνολογίας, όπου οι Κινέζοι τα τελευταία χρόνια παίζουν τα ρέστα τους. Επίσης, στο Αφγανιστάν θα δούμε την Κίνα να έχει εντονότερη παρουσία. Αν θέλετε, και σε ανταπόδοση έτσι κι αλλιώς θα το έκανε, αλλά ενδιαφέρεται και η ίδια λόγω του ότι το Αφγανιστάν θα μπορούσε να γίνει άντρο τζιχαντιστικής τρομοκρατίας και υπάρχει και η περίπτωση των Ουιγούρων στην περιοχή Ξι Γιάνγκ της Κίνας. Επίσης, ενδιαφέρεται και για τις σπάνιες γαίες που υπάρχουν στο Αφγανιστάν, ιδιαίτερα δε για τα μεγάλα αποθέματα λιθίου. Επειδή η Κίνα είναι αυτή τη στιγμή το νούμερο ένα στον κόσμο στην παραγωγή μπαταριών παντός είδους, θεωρώ ότι θα προβούν σε μια τέτοια κίνηση στο Αφγανιστάν.
Πολλοί είπαν ότι με τη συμφωνία AUKUS δημιουργείται ένα νέο ΝΑΤΟ. Πού είναι η ΕΕ σε όλα αυτά; Είναι ο μεγάλος χαμένος στο διεθνές στερέωμα, πλέον;
Η ΕΕ αν κάτι χάνει από αυτή τη διαδικασία είναι, πρώτον, αυτό που αναφέρατε σωστά για το ΝΑΤΟ. Οι ΗΠΑ και η Βρετανία είναι πολύ περισσότερο από το μισό ΝΑΤΟ. Αλλωστε τον προϋπολογισμό του ΝΑΤΟ τον καλύπτουν οι Αμερικανοί κατά τα δύο τρίτα, σχεδόν, κατά μόνας. Και η Βρετανία είναι πάντα μια πολύ σημαντική δύναμη για ζητήματα ασφάλειας, υπηρεσιών και πυρηνική δύναμη η ίδια, δεν είναι αμελητέα ποσότητα. Συνεπώς, όταν έχεις δύο τέτοια μέλη του ΝΑΤΟ να εμπλέκονται σε μια τέτοια συνέργεια, το λαμβάνεις υπ’ όψιν.
Είναι βέβαιο πως το γόητρο της Ευρωπαϊκής Ενωσης πλήττεται έτι περαιτέρω, στη λογική ότι δεν μπορεί να είναι παγκόσμιος παίκτης και ότι δεν τη λαμβάνει τελικά κανείς πολύ σοβαρά υπ’ όψιν, ούτε οι Αμερικανοί, ούτε οι Κινέζοι. Αυτό είναι προβληματικό.
Από εκεί και πέρα, θα μπορούσε αυτή η ενέργεια να οδηγήσει την ΕΕ σε μεγαλύτερη αμυντική τουλάχιστον αυτοτέλεια; Μπορεί να κινηθεί σε μια τέτοια κατεύθυνση, αντί να έχει συμπληρωματικό ρόλο στις ΗΠΑ, να αποκτήσει μια αυτονομία αμυντικού τύπου;
Πρώτον, επειδή αυτό σημαίνει πολλά λεφτά και επειδή υπάρχει η Γερμανία στη μέση, δεν είμαι σίγουρος ότι μπορεί να γίνει από τη μια στιγμή στην άλλη. Δεύτερον, να έχουμε κατά νου ότι τα περισσότερα από τα μέλη της ΕΕ είναι και κράτη-μέλη του ΝΑΤΟ. Εδώ υπάρχουν ζητήματα πολύ σοβαρά στο κατά πόσο θα τους επιτρεπόταν κάτι τέτοιο. Ακόμη και εάν η Γαλλία σήκωνε το λάβαρο της επανάστασης -που δεν είμαι καθόλου βέβαιος ότι θα το κάνει-, και παρότι μιλάει ανοικτά για την ανάγκη η ΕΕ να αυτονομηθεί από το ΝΑΤΟ και τις ΗΠΑ και να αποκτήσει μια δική της περπατησιά. Δεν φαίνεται όμως κάτι τέτοιο. Και επειδή μιλάμε για Ινδικό και Ειρηνικό, εδώ καλά-καλά η ΕΕ δεν είχε ρόλο και λόγο για τις εξελίξεις στη Συρία και στη Λιβύη, που είναι η άμεση γειτονιά της.
Πάμε σε μια νέα εποχή Ψυχρού Πολέμου; Θα δούμε και κούρσες εξοπλισμών;
Είναι πιθανό. Και μάλιστα επειδή υπάρχουν και νέες τεχνολογίες πλέον, είναι πολύ πιθανό -όπως έχει γίνει ήδη στο Διάστημα- να μεταφερθεί σε τομείς όπως η τεχνητή νοημοσύνη και σε εμπορικές δραστηριότητες.
Σας θυμίζω ότι μετά το ξέσπασμα της Covid-19, η συζήτηση που έχει ανοίξει στη Δύση είναι τι γίνεται με τις τροφοδοσίες. Βλέπουμε με την ακρίβεια πάρα πολλών προϊόντων σήμερα, κάτι το οποίο για κάποια εξ αυτών οφείλεται ακριβώς στο ότι οι αλυσίδες τροφοδοσίας βρίσκονται μακριά και κυρίως στην περιοχή της Ασίας.
Εγώ θα σας έλεγα ότι το τελευταίο που χρειάζεται ο πλανήτης είναι μια μεγαλύτερη ένταση ανάμεσα σε ΗΠΑ και Κίνα. Θέλω να πιστεύω ότι σε κάποιους τομείς, όπως στην κλιματική κρίση ή στον πόλεμο κατά της τρομοκρατίας, θα υπάρξουν πεδία συνεννόησης, αλλά είναι βέβαιο ότι η Κίνα θεωρεί ότι αυτή η κίνηση, όπως και η αναβίωση της QUAT, που σας είπα πριν, είναι ευθέως επιθετικές προς αυτήν.
Σε όλο αυτό που διαδραματίζεται σε επίπεδο παγκόσμιων παικτών, η Ελλάδα μοιάζει με μυρμήγκι. Οταν παλεύουν οι ελέφαντες μπορεί να πάρει θέση;
Εγώ στο μυαλό μου είχα κάτι άλλο, τα βουβάλια με τα βατράχια! Προφανώς σε τέτοια ζητήματα η Ελλάδα δεν μπορεί να έχει θέση ή δεν είναι υποχρεωμένη να την εκφράσει με σθεναρότητα. Όμως, αν αυτός ο ανταγωνισμός μεταξύ Πεκίνου-Ουάσιγκτον συνεχιστεί και διευρυνθεί, αυτό θα επηρεάσει και χώρες όπως είναι η Ελλάδα, δεδομένου ότι εμείς έχουμε μια συνεπή και πολύ θετική για την οικονομία, το εμπόριο και τις μεταφορές μας παρουσία με την Cosco στον Πειραιά και γενικότερα ένα ενδιαφέρον των Κινέζων για την Ελλάδα, ως πύλη εισόδου προς και από την Ευρωπαϊκή Ενωση.
Από την άλλη, οι Αμερικανοί είναι πάρα πολύ σημαντικοί για ζητήματα ασφάλειας της Ελλάδας και έτσι κι αλλιώς ο στρατηγικός μας προσανατολισμός είναι προς τη Δύση. Θα σας έβαζα δε και την παράμετρο της Ρωσίας: Υπάρχει πολύ έντονη αμερικανική παρουσία στην Αλεξανδρούπολη, κάτι το οποίο ενοχλεί και τους Τούρκους, γιατί τους χαλάει κάποιους σχεδιασμούς ή τους αποτρέπουν να κάνουν κινήσεις που θα ήθελαν στην περιοχή, αλλά και τους Ρώσους. Οπότε δεν είναι εύκολη η εξίσωση για εμάς. Αν υπάρξει ένταση των ανταγωνισμών, θα πρέπει να ισορροπήσουμε σε ένα τεντωμένο σχοινί. Αλλά, να σας είμαι ειλικρινής, έχουμε μια σχετική εμπειρία. Επειδή είμαστε μικροί αλλά σημαντικοί, έχουμε μάθει με ποιο τρόπο να ελισσόμαστε. Αν, βέβαια, μας μπει «το μαχαίρι στον λαιμό», κυρίως από τον αμερικανικό παράγοντα, εκεί τα πράγματα θα είναι πιο δύσκολα. Αλλά θα πρέπει κι εμείς να εξηγήσουμε προς πάσα κατεύθυνση ότι την Ελλάδα, επειδή ακριβώς δεν είναι ούτε επιθετική ούτε αναθεωρητική δύναμη και δεν σκοπεύει να αλλάξει το stauts quo, την ενδιαφέρει στην παρούσα φάση να μπορέσει να ανοικοδομήσει την οικονομία της. Και ως προς αυτό, όποιος θέλει να συνδράμει, από όποια πλευρά του κόσμου και αν προέρχεται, είναι καλοδεχούμενος.
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