Αντιμέτωπη με τη φτώχεια βρίσκεται η μεσαία τάξη και όπως επισημαίνει η Alpha Bank

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Αντιμέτωπη με τη φτώχεια βρίσκεται η μεσαία τάξη και όπως επισημαίνει η Alpha Bank, oκοινωνικές και οικονομικές επιπτώσεις από τη συρρίκνωση της μεσαίας τάξης στα χρόνια κρίσης είναι τεράστιες.

Γράφει η Gillian Rothschild

Όπως αναφέρουν χαρακτηριστικά οι αναλυτές της, η οικονομική κρίση από την οποία διήλθε η χώρα, άφησε το αποτύπωμά της τόσο στα πιο αδύναμα οικονομικά στρώματα, όσο και στη μεσαία τάξη, επιδεινώνοντας το βιοτικό επίπεδο των πολιτών.

Συγκεκριμένα, σύμφωνα με την Έρευνα Εισοδήματος και συνθηκών Διαβίωσης των Νοικοκυριών (2018) της Ελληνικής Στατιστικής Υπηρεσίας (ΕΛΣΤΑΤ), το ποσοστό του πληθυσμού που βρισκόταν το 2017 σε κίνδυνο φτώχειας διαμορφώθηκε στο 20,2%, μετά τις κοινωνικές μεταβιβάσεις.

Το ποσοστό αυτό αφορά στα άτομα που ζουν σε νοικοκυριά των οποίων το συνολικό ισοδύναμο διαθέσιμο εισόδημα είναι χαμηλότερο του 60% του εθνικού διαμέσου ισοδύναμου διαθέσιμου εισοδήματος.

Πρόκειται συνεπώς για ένα μέτρο σχετικής φτώχειας και υπό αυτήν την έννοια αποτελεί ένδειξη της ανισότητας στον πληθυσμό αλλά και του κινδύνου κοινωνικού αποκλεισμού. Το ποσοστό πληθυσμού σε κίνδυνο φτώχειας στην Ελλάδα ήταν 19,6% το 2005 και αυξήθηκε σταδιακά έως το 2012, φθάνοντας σε στο 23,1%, βαίνοντας μειούμενο από το 2014 και μετά. Η μικρή κάμψη του ποσοστού φτώχειας που καταγράφεται από το 2014, συνδέεται κυρίως με τη μείωση της ανεργίας από το Φθινόπωρο του 2013 και μετά.

Πλήγμα στη μεσαία τάξη

Σύμφωνα με την Alpha Bank, παράλληλα τα τελευταία χρόνια, τόσο στη χώρα μας όσο και παγκοσμίως, φαίνεται ότι έχει πληγεί σημαντικά η μεσαία τάξη, φαινόμενο που έχει τεθεί στο μικροσκόπιο διεθνών οργανισμών, όπως ο Οργανισμός Οικονομικής Συνεργασίας και Ανάπτυξης (ΟΟΣΑ) και το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο.

Όπως εξηγούν οι οικονομολόγοι της, το επίπεδο διαβίωσης της μεσαίας τάξης συνιστά ένα κρίσιμο μέγεθος, αφού αποτελεί σημαντικό στοιχείο μίας εύρυθμης οικονομίας και μιας κοινωνίας που χαρακτηρίζεται από συνοχή (OECD, Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class, Απρίλιος 2019).

«H μεσαία τάξη συμβάλλει σημαντικά στην κατανάλωση, στηρίζει σημαντικό μέρος των επενδύσεων στους τομείς της εκπαίδευσης, της υγείας και της αγοράς ακινήτων, ενισχύει την παραγωγικότητα, ενώ υποστηρίζει και το σύστημα κοινωνικής ασφάλισης μέσω της πληρωμής» επισημαίνεται σχετικά.

Οι οικονομολόγοι της τράπεζας σημειώνουν ότι η ενίσχυση της μεσαίας τάξης στην Ελλάδα, ούτως ώστε να προσεγγίσει τουλάχιστον το μέσο επίπεδο των χωρών του ΟΟΣΑ, υπαγορεύει την αντιμετώπιση των ποικίλων προβλημάτων στην αγορά εργασίας και ειδικότερα τα ζητήματα της υψηλής ανεργίας των νέων, του σταθερά υψηλού ποσοστού των μακροχρόνια ανέργων στη χώρα και της ενίσχυσης των θέσεων πλήρους απασχόλησης και υψηλής εξειδίκευσης (και αμοιβής) έναντι των θέσεων μερικής απασχόλησης.

Οι νέοι έως 30 ετών

Όπως ανέδειξε η μελέτη του ΟΟΣΑ, το ποσοστό των νέων ηλικίας 20-30 ετών, οι οποίοι ανήκουν στη μεσαία τάξη, μειώθηκε σε διεθνές επίπεδο, από 68% στη γενιά των «baby-boomers» (γεννηθέντες μεταξύ 1943-1964), στο 64% στη λεγόμενη Generation X (γεννηθέντες μεταξύ 1965-1982) και στο 60% στη γενιά των Millennials (γεννηθέντες μεταξύ 1983-2002).

«Η φθίνουσα πορεία του ποσοστού των νέων που ανήκουν στη μεσαία τάξη οφείλεται εν πολλοίς στο υψηλό κόστος διατήρησης του μεταπολεμικού προτύπου διαβίωσης, στη σχετική στασιμότητα των αμοιβών και στην υψηλή μεταβλητότητα της απασχόλησης τις τελευταίες δεκαετίες» αναφέρεται στην ίδια μελέτη.

Η τελευταία συνδέεται σε μεγάλο βαθμό με την εν εξελίξει αυτοματοποίηση της εργασίας, η οποία απειλεί περίπου το 17,6% των θέσεων εργασίας της μεσαίας τάξης στον ΟΟΣΑ και το 23,1% στην Ελλάδα.

Παράλληλα στην Ελλάδα, η γενική αποεπένδυση της τελευταίας δεκαετίας, ιδιαίτερα στον τομέα Έρευνας και Ανάπτυξης, συντηρεί την υψηλή μακροχρόνια ανεργία και δυσχεραίνει τη δημιουργία θέσεων εργασίας εξειδικευμένων δεξιοτήτων για τους νέους με υψηλό επίπεδο εκπαίδευσης.

Ως εκ τούτου, το ποσοστό του πληθυσμού το οποίο αμείβεται με λιγότερο από το 75% του διαμέσου εισοδήματος διατηρείται υψηλό.

Η αντιστροφή της τάσης

Πως μπορεί όμως να ενισχυθεί το μέγεθος της μεσαίας τάξης και να μειωθεί το ποσοστό πληθυσμού που βρίσκεται σε κίνδυνο φτώχειας;

Ως προς αυτό, η Alpha Bank επισημαίνει τα εξής σημεία:

Πρώτον, για το σκοπό αυτό απαιτείται η ορθότερη και δικαιότερη κατανομή των κοινωνικών δαπανών, προϋπόθεση η οποία – όπως θα δούμε στο επόμενο εδάφιο – είναι αμφίβολο ότι ικανοποιείται στην Ελλάδα.

Δεύτερον, όπως προτείνεται από τον ΟΟΣΑ, είναι απαραίτητη η ανοικοδόμηση κατοικιών οι οποίες θα υποστηρίζονται από τα μελλοντικά εισοδήματα (affordability).

Τρίτον, είναι σημαντική η ενεργός υποστήριξη της νεανικής επιχειρηματικότητας, μέσα από την παροχή ισχυρών φορολογικών και λοιπών κινήτρων, η οποία θα μπορούσε να οδηγήσει στην αντιστροφή του φαινομένου της διαρροής ανθρωπίνου κεφαλαίου (brain drain).

Στο σημείο αυτό, αξίζει να σημειωθεί ο καθοριστικός ρόλος που μπορεί να διαδραματίσει η τραπεζική χρηματοδότηση στις νέες και καινοτόμες επιχειρηματικές πρωτοβουλίες.

Τέταρτον, απαιτείται ο σχεδιασμός μιας μακρόπνοης και αποτελεσματικής πολιτικής ανάπτυξης δεξιοτήτων των μακροχρόνια ανέργων, μέσα από προγράμματα επαγγελματικής κατάρτισης, αλλά και η προσαρμογή του εκπαιδευτικού συστήματος στις ψηφιακές δεξιότητες οι οποίες θα καλύπτουν τις ανάγκες του σύγχρονου επιχειρείν.

Πέμπτο, η μείωση των φορολογικών επιβαρύνσεων στην εργασία είναι απαραίτητη προϋπόθεση, προκειμένου να ενισχυθούν τα κίνητρα για τη δημιουργία νέων θέσεων εργασίας, μέσω της αύξησης των επενδυτικών δαπανών. Με αυτόν τον τρόπο υποστηρίζονται και οι χαμηλότερες εισοδηματικές κατηγορίες, όπως εξετάζουμε αναλυτικότερα σε επόμενο εδάφιο.

Οι δαπάνες κοινωνικής προστασίας

Σύμφωνα με την Alpha Bank, το υψηλό ποσοστό νοικοκυριών σε κίνδυνο φτώχειας, παρά τη μείωσή του, καθώς και η ανισοκατανομή του εισοδήματος έχουν σημαντικές κοινωνικές και οικονομικές συνέπειες.

Συγκεκριμένα οι αναλυτές της τράπεζας αναφέρουν τα εξής:

Πρώτον, στρεβλώνουν τη συναλλακτική διαδικασία, καθώς αυξάνεται το ποσοστό των νοικοκυριών που δηλώνει δυσκολία στην αποπληρωμή των υποχρεώσεών του εντός προθεσμίας, είτε αυτές αφορούν στην εξυπηρέτηση δανείων, είτε στην πληρωμή πάγιων λογαριασμών.

Σημειώνεται ότι, σύμφωνα με τη σχετική ανακοίνωση της ΕΛΣΤΑΤ για την υλική υστέρηση και τις συνθήκες διαβίωσης των νοικοκυρών για το 2017, τα ποσοστά των φτωχών νοικοκυριών τα οποία δυσκολεύονται να αποπληρώσουν έγκαιρα τις δόσεις των πιστωτικών καρτών και των δανείων τους, των πάγιων λογαριασμών και των ενοικίων για την κατοικία ή την δόση του στεγαστικού τους δανείου ανέρχονται στο 71,2%, 56,5% και 53% του συνόλου αντίστοιχα. Τα εν λόγω ποσοστά είναι σημαντικά χαμηλότερα ωστόσο σε σχέση με το 2016 (85%, 62,3% και 63,4% αντίστοιχα).

Δεύτερον, θέτουν σε κίνδυνο τους δημοσιονομικούς στόχους, καθώς εξασθενούν τη δυνατότητα των νοικοκυριών να καλύψουν τις φορολογικές τους υποχρεώσεις, ενώ έχουν ως αποτέλεσμα τη συσσώρευση των εκκρεμών φορολογικών υποχρεώσεων των ιδιωτών προς το δημόσιο.

Τρίτον, θέτουν προσκόμματα στην οικονομική ανάπτυξη, καθώς αυξάνουν τη διαρροή του εξειδικευμένου ανθρώπινου δυναμικού στο εξωτερικό (brain drain), με αποτέλεσμα η χώρα να υφίσταται απώλειες πολύτιμου ανθρωπίνου κεφαλαίου, αλλά και μειωμένες εισφορές στην κοινωνική ασφάλιση.

Τέταρτον, οδηγεί στην υποεπένδυση σε ανθρώπινο κεφάλαιο (under-investment in human capital), καθώς μεγάλο μέρος των φτωχότερων νοικοκυριών αδυνατεί να χρηματοδοτήσει τα έξοδα σπουδών εκτός του τόπου κατοικίας.

Πέμπτον, οι κοινωνικές ανισότητες και το ποσοστό φτώχειας, σε συνδυασμό με την μακροχρόνια ανεργία και την υψηλή ανεργία των νέων έχουν αρνητικές επιδράσεις στην κοινωνική συνοχή.

 

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