Η Παγίδα του Θουκυδίδη: Η Ελλάδα ξεγλίστρησε από τους Γερμανούς και χτίζει τις σχέσεις της με Γαλλία και ΗΠΑ

Του ΑλΕΞΑΝΔΡΟΥ ΔΡΙΒΑ*, Capital
Το σήριαλ της αγοράς των φρεγατών έλαβε αίσιο τέλος και συνοδεύτηκε από μια συμφωνία-μαμούθ για τα δεδομένα της Ελλάδας αλλά και της Ευρώπης.
Για να αντιληφθούμε τη σημασία αυτής της συμφωνίας, όλες οι ευρωπαϊκές αλλά και μεσογειακές χώρες ατενίζουν με δέος το ελληνογαλλικό αμυντικό σύμφωνο.
Η Ελλάδα με αυτή τη συμφωνία γίνεται προγεφύρωμα των γαλλικών συμφερόντων σε ανατολική Μεσόγειο, Βόρεια Αφρική και Μέση Ανατολή. Πρόκειται για περιοχές στις οποίες εδράζονται ζωτικά γαλλικά συμφέροντα.
Παρόλα αυτά, αυτή η αμυντική συμφωνία έχει και άλλες πολύ θετικές πτυχές για την Ελλάδα.
- Πρωτοφανής ρήτρα που δείχνει τη γαλλική άποψη για το ΝΑΤΟ
Στα άρθρα της συμφωνία γίνεται ξεκάθαρη αναφορά σε ρήτρα αμυντικής συνδρομής που νομικά κατοχυρώνεται από το άρθρο 51 του ΟΗΕ. Η άσκηση του δικαιώματος της νόμιμης άμυνας από τα δύο συμβαλλόμενα μέρη, δεν αποτελεί την καινοτομία της συμφωνίας.
Το πρωτοφανές στοιχείο είναι ότι αυτή η ρήτρα ισχύει και έναντι χωρών-μελών του ΝΑΤΟ. Πρόκειται για μια βόμβα στα θεμέλια των άρθρων 4 και 5 του ΝΑΤΟ που καθιστά την Τουρκία αμήχανη αφού της στερεί το δικαίωμα να χρησιμοποιεί στις ελληνοτουρκικές και γαλλοτουρκικές σχέσεις το χαρτί της ιδιότητας μέλους του ΝΑΤΟ και να συνεχίζει τις προκλήσεις της έναντι των ”συμμάχων” της στο Βορειοατλαντικό Σύμφωνο.
Η Γαλλία θέλει να δείξει ανάστημα σε ΗΠΑ και ΗΒ μετά την ταπείνωση από τη συμφωνία AUKUS η οποία επίσης έφερε σε δύσκολη θέση το ΝΑΤΟ. Ο πρόεδρος Μακρόν έχει στο παρελθόν εκφράσει την άποψη ότι το ΝΑΤΟ είναι εγκεφαλικά νεκρό. Πράττει βάσει αυτού.
Η Ελλάδα από την πλευρά της έχει κουραστεί να ακούει τον Γενς Στόλτενμπεργκ να μιλάει στρογγυλοποιημένα για τις τουρκικές προκλήσεις σε βάρος των ελληνικών συμφερόντων. Η συμφωνία Ελλάδας-Γαλλίας πρόκειται να φέρει συζήτηση ενδονατοϊκή για το μέλλον του ίδιου του οργανισμού στον πολυπολικό κόσμο.
- Η Γαλλία ανέλαβε και επίσημα ηγεμονική θέση στη Μεσόγειο
Η Γαλλία από την πρώτη δεκαετία του 21ου αιώνα έδειξε τη θέλησή της για Μεσογειακή Ένωση εντός των πλαισίων της Ε.Ε. Το Βερολίνο όμως, μάλλον είχε άλλη άποψη (και όπως αποδείχτηκε μετά το 2007, άλλους στόχους). Η Γαλλία δεν είχε την ισχύ που έχει από το 2016 και μετά.
Οι παράγοντες που οδήγησαν το Παρίσι στο να μπορέσει να αυξήσει την επιρροή του εντός της Ε.Ε ήταν τρεις: Το Brexit, η προσπάθεια αναμόρφωσης του γαλλικού ρόλου στον κόσμο και η φθίνουσα πορεία της γερμανικής ισχύος. Ο Μακρόν δεν έγινε ”αντίπαλος” της Μέρκελ αλλά ήταν σίγουρα άλλη φωνή από αυτήν που είχε συνηθίσει να ακούει το Βερολίνο από Σαρκοζί και Ολάντ.
Η Γαλλία έχει βρεθεί αντιμέτωπη με τη Γερμανία τόσο για τα δημοσιονομικά θέματα της Ε.Ε, όσο και για θέματα ασφάλειας και άμυνας αλλά και διεύρυνσης της Ε.Ε. Χαρακτηριστικά παραδείγματα, οι πιέσεις της Γαλλίας για το πακέτο στήριξης εν μέσω πανδημίας, το θέμα της Τουρκίας αλλά και το ”όχι” του Παρισιού στην άμεση ένταξη των Δυτικών Βαλκανίων στην Ε.Ε. Μέσες-άκρες, η πολιτική του Παρισιού ευθυγραμμίζεται με τα συμφέροντα της Ελλάδας και εντός της Ε.Ε.
Από το να περιμένουν να συντονιστεί η κυβέρνηση-Βαβέλ της Γερμανίας όπως αυτή προέκυψε από τις 26/0/2021, οι Γάλλοι ταχύτατα προωθούν την ατζέντα τους στην Ευρώπη μετά την εποχή Μέρκελ.
Σε στρατιωτικό επίπεδο, η έξοδος της Μεγάλης Βρετανίας από την Ε.Ε κατέστησε τη Γαλλία την αδιαμφισβήτητη δύναμη της Ευρώπης. Η Μεσόγειος είναι πλέον στα χέρια της, πουλώντας υπερσύγχρονα πλοία και αεροσκάφη στην Ελλάδα.
Η Ιταλία οφείλει και αυτή να σκεφτεί τον ρόλο της καθώς θα είναι δύσκολο να έρθει αντιμέτωπη με τη Γαλλία στο θέμα της Λιβύης και από την άλλη, να ζητά τη δημιουργία του άξονα Dracron (από τα ονόματα Ντράγκι και Μακρόν) εντός της Ε.Ε. Η Γαλλία θα είναι πιο άνετη τώρα αναφορικά με τις δουλειές της Total σε Ελλάδα και Κύπρο αλλά και στο Ιράκ και στη Μέση Ανατολή.
Η Μεσόγειος είναι πλέον η περιοχή στην οποία η Γαλλία έχει τον πρώτο λόγο και η Ελλάδα είναι η χώρα που έχει την πλέον σημαντική σχέση με μια δύναμη που δεν έχει μόνο ευρωπαϊκή, αλλά και παγκόσμια επιρροή.
- Η Ελλάδα ξεγλίστρησε από τους Γερμανούς και συνεχίζει να χτίζει τη σχέση με ΗΠΑ
Στη διεθνή πολιτική τα συμφέροντα καθορίζουν εχθρούς και φίλους, καχυποψία και αβροφροσύνη. Η γερμανική πρωτοβουλία διαμεσολάβησης με την Τουρκία κατέστη ατελέσφορη.
Το Βερολίνο αρκετές φορές έδειξει να δικαιώνει τον Νίκο Δένδια όταν συχνά-πυκνά εξέφραζε δημόσια παράπονα για τη μεροληπτική στάση της Γερμανίας απέναντι στην Τουρκία. Στις Βρυξέλλες είχαν συνηθίσει να ακούν την κ. Μέρκελ για όλα.
Η Γαλλία τώρα θα αναλάβει πιο ισχυρό ρόλο εντός της Ε.Ε και η Ελλάδα δεν θα αναγκάζεται να συνεργάζεται σε όλα με έναν δύσκολο- και ελλιπή σε κατανόηση των ελληνικών συμφερόντων -εταίρο. Δεν είναι τυχαίο οτι τόσο στην προσφυγική κρίση, όσο και στην κρίση της ΕΖ και στο είδος της σχέσης Ε.Ε-Τουρκίας, η Ελλάδα ήταν θύμα.
Έχουμε πλέον την ευκαιρία να διαπραγματευόμαστε με άλλους όρους εντός της Ε.Ε. Οι κυρώσεις εναντίον της Τουρκίας αν προκαλέσει όπως προκαλούσε, είναι πιο πιθανές μετά την 1/1/2022 όπου η Γαλλία θα συντονίζει την Ε.Ε.
Αυτό το εξάμηνο μάλιστα, θα έχει τη Γερμανία σε περίοδο όπου η νέα κυβέρνηση θα προσπαθεί να αποκτήσει συνοχή. Η Ελλάδα θα αναβαθμιστεί πολύ καθώς πολλά κράτη της Ε.Ε θα επιθυμούν να έχουν καλές σχέσεις με τη χώρα που έχει ειδική σχέση με τη Γαλλία.
Η Ελλάδα δεν εξαρτάται πλέον από τη γερμανική ακαμψία και αυτό δίνει στην Ελλάδα άλλον αέρα τόσο στα καθαρά ευρωπαϊκά δρώμενα, όσο και στα ελληνοτουρικά. Οι ΗΠΑ φαίνεται πως δεν έχουν ιδιαίτερο πρόβλημα καθώς η ελληνοτουρκική έριδα πιο πολλά προβλήματα δημιουργεί στην αμερικανική γραφειοκρατία.
Σε κάθε περίπτωση, η MDCA θα προχωρήσει περισσότερο τα επόμενα 2 έτη καθώς οι δυνατές χώρες, υποστηρίζουν εκείνον που αναβαθμίζεται.
Παρά την κρίση μεταξύ ΗΠΑ-Γαλλίας με φόντο το AUKUS, οι αμερικανογαλλικές σχέσεις είναι στρατηγικές σε διμερές επίπεδο και σε κάθε περίπτωση, άλλη περιοχή ο Ινδικός Ωκεανός και άλλη περιοχή η Μεσόγειος για την οποία οι Αμερικανοί θα ήθελαν μια δυτική δύναμη να προστατεύει και τα αμερικανικά συμφέροντα καθώς οι ΗΠΑ ετοιμάζονται για το θέμα της Ταϊβάν.
Φαίνεται πως σε έναν βαθμό, το ΑUKUS έφερε μια συνεννόηση μεταξύ ΗΠΑ-Γαλλίας που επηρέασε και το ελληνογαλλικό σύμφωνο. Ο Μπαϊντεν άλλωστε θα έχει συνάντηση με τον Μακρόν. Οι σχέσεις Ουάσινγκτον-Παρισιού είναι ιάσιμες. Η Ελλάδα κοιτά συμπληρωματικά τις σχέσεις της με τις δύο χώρες που παράλληλα άλλωστε επαυξήθηκαν.
Οι μύθοι οτι οι Αμερικανοί δεν ήθελαν να πάρει η Ελλάδα γαλλικό υλικό, διαλύθηκαν.
- Η ταφόπλακα της ”Γαλάζιας Πατρίδας” και η Παγίδα του Θουκυδίδη
Η Τουρκία ανησύχησε πολύ όταν η Ελλάδα έκλεισε τη συμφωνία για 18 Rafale. Ο εκνευρισμός της Άγκυρας αυξήθηκε όταν λίγες μέρες πριν, επιβεβαιώθηκε η ενεργοποίηση της option με άλλα 6 Rafale. Μπορούμε να φανταστούμε πως ο Ερντογάν έχει πλέον πολλά να σκεφτεί και να χρειαστεί κάτι το οποίο δεν φημίζεται ότι κατέχει. Ψυχραιμία.
Στην Τουρκία τα οικονομικά προβλήματα είναι τεράστια. Ο νέος Γερμανός Καγκελάριος δεν θα έχει τη σχέση που είχε η Μέρκελ μαζί του. Ο Ερντογάν δύσκολα βρίσκει χημεία με δυτικούς ηγέτες, όπως φάνηκε και από τον τρόπο που συνεχίζει να τον αντιμετωπίζει ο Μπαϊντεν.
Η συμφωνία- μαμούθ Ελλάδας-Γαλλίας είναι το κερασάκι σε μια μάλλον πικρή τούρτα για την Τουρκία η οποία μετά τις ”πόρτες” από τις ΗΠΑ, βλέπει τη Γερμανία να έχει πιο περιορισμένη ανοχή στις τουρκικές απειλές και μια γαλλική ανάληψη προεδρίας στην αυγή του 2022 να είναι αρμόδια για καυτά θέματα για την οικονομία της Τουρκίας, όπως είναι τα χρήματα που παίρνει η Άγκυρα για τους πρόσφυγες αλλά και η ανανέωση της Τελωνειακής Ένωσης Ε.Ε-Τουρκίας.
Οι δύο κύριοι αντίπαλοι της ”Γαλάζιας Πατρίδας” συνασπίζονται και η Ελλάδα αποκτά οπλικά συστήματα που κάνουν πραγματικότητα τον τουρκικό εφιάλτη που ακούει στη φράση ”Το Αιγαίο ως ελληνική λίμνη”. Η Κύπρος επίσης παίρνει ανάσα καθώς οι Belh@rra μαζί με τα Rafale καθιστούν τις τουρκικές απειλές, μάλλον μη πραγματοποιήσιμες δίνοντάς μας ”διαπραγματευτικό αέρα” στις δύσκολες συνομιλίες με τους Τούρκους.
Η ”Γαλάζια Πατρίδα” ως τουρκική φαντασίωση, μάλλον δεν περνά τις καλύτερες μέρες. Η Τουρκία θα δοκιμάσει ίσως τη λειτουργία της ”αμοιβαίας αμυντικής συνδρομής” μεταξύ Ελλάδας και Γαλλίας.
Σε κάθε περίπτωση, η Τουρκία έχει 3,5 χρόνια πριν γίνουν το Αιγαίο και η ανατολική Μεσόγειος ”αστακοί” και 1,5 έτος ώστε ο Ερντογάν να ψάξει να βρει ”τρόπαια” για να αναστήσει τη δημοτικότητά του όπως και του παραπαίοντος Μπαχτσελί.
Η Τουρκία μπορεί να οδηγήσει τις ελληνοτουρκικές σχέσεις σε Θουκυδίδεια Παγίδα, προσπαθώντας να δημιουργήσει τετελεσμένα πριν αποκτήσει η Ελλάδα τα αμυντικά assets της ελληνογαλλικής αμυντικής συμφωνίας.
* Ο κ. Αλέξανδρος Δρίβας είναι Στρατηγικός Αναλυτής-Διεθνολόγος
- Τα σχόλια που δημοσιεύονται στην ιστοσελίδα μας εκφράζουν απαραίτητα τους συγγραφείς. Η ιστοσελίδα μας δεν λογοκρίνει τις γνώμες κανενός.
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